Title : The research of the statistical relationship between the human development index and expenditures on addictive goods in European countries
Abstract:
The statistical research was conducted over 34 European countries: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, Great Britain, Iceland, Norway, Serbia, Malta, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Northern Macedonia. Over the twelve-year period 2010-2021, the dynamics of human development index (HDI) and the share of expenditures on the purchase of alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, and narcotic drugs in the structure of expenditures on household final consumption had been studied, the corresponding coefficients of determination and correlation had been calculated, trends in the share of expenditures and human development index, the direction and strength of the relationship between HDI and expenditures on alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and narcotic drugs had been determined. In general, during the analyzed period 2010-2021, the growth trend in the human development index had been determined in all countries (direct dependence). The uniformity of growth was somewhat disrupted only by the crisis phenomena in 2011, 2016, 2020 and 2021. The negative (inverse) relationship was revealed between expenditures on alcoholic beverages and HDI (with HDI growth, the expenditures on alcoholic beverages were decreased) in 15 countries (44%): Russia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Finland, Great Britain, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina. 11 countries (73%) out of the 15 countries (44% of 34 countries) in which the share of expenditures on alcoholic beverages was decreasing with HDI growth, were in the group with relatively high share of expenditures on alcoholic beverages (located in the first half or close to it from 34 countries), and 10 countries (90.9%) of them were in the group with a relatively low HDI (located in the second half or close to it from 34 countries). The positive (direct) relationship was established between the share of expenditures on alcoholic beverages and HDI (with the growth of HDI, the share of expenditures on alcoholic beverages were growing) in 19 countries (56% of 34 countries): Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Sweden, Iceland, Norway, Malta, Northern Macedonia. 16 countries (84%) out of the 19 countries (56% of 34 countries), in which the share of expenditures on alcoholic beverages was increasing with the growth of HDI, were in the group with relatively low shares of expenditures on alcoholic beverages (located in the second half or close to it from 34 countries), and 12 countries (75%) of them were in the group with a relatively high HDI (located in the first half or close to it from 34 countries). The negative (inverse) relationship was established between the expenditures on tobacco products and HDI (with the growth of HDI, the expenditures on tobacco products were reducing) in 16 countries (53% of 30 countries): Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Portugal, Slovenia, Sweden, Great Britain, Iceland, Northern Macedonia. The positive (direct) relationship was established between the share of expenditures on tobacco products and HDI (with the growth of HDI, the share of expenditures on tobacco products was growing) in 14 countries (47% of 30 countries): Russia, Belgium, France, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Austria, Romania, Slovakia, Finland, Serbia, Malta, Bosnia and Herzegovina. 7 countries (50%) out of 14 countries (47% of 30 countries), in which the share of expenditures on tobacco products was increasing with HDI growth, were in the group with relatively low share of expenditures on tobacco products (located in the second half of the 30 countries), and 4 countries (57.1%) of them were in the group with a relatively high HDI (located in the first half of the 30 countries). The other 7 countries (50%) had some of the highest expenditures on purchase of tobacco products (located in the first half of the 30 countries), while 7 of them (100%) had relatively low HDI (located in the second half of the 30 countries). Based on the negative values of the correlation coefficient, the share of expenditures on narcotic drugs had a downward trend over the analyzed period in dynamics in 16 countries (61.5%) out of 26: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Ireland, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Austria, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Great Britain, Iceland, Serbia. The share of the expenditures on narcotic drug was growing in 7 countries (27% of 26 countries): Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Finland, and Northern Macedonia.
The share of expenditure on narcotic drugs did not change in dynamics in 3 countries (11.5%): Belgium (0.3%), Portugal (0.1%), Sweden (0.1%). The negative (inverse) relationship between expenditures on narcotic drugs and HDI was established (with HDI growth, the expenditures on narcotic drugs were reducing) in 16 countries (61.5%): Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Ireland, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Austria, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Great Britain, Iceland, Serbia. 11 countries (68.8%) out of 16 countries (61.5% of 26 countries) in which the share of expenditures on narcotic drugs decreased with HDI growth, were in the group with relatively low share of drug expenditures (located in the second half of 26 countries) and 7 countries (63.6%) of them were in the group with a relatively low HDI (located in the second half of the 26 countries). The positive (direct) relationship was established between the share of expenditures on narcotic drugs and HDI (with the growth of HDI, the share of expenditures on narcotic drugs was growing in 7 countries (27% of 26 countries): Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Finland, and Northern Macedonia. 4 countries (57.1%) out of 7 countries (27% of 26 countries) in which the share of expenditures on narcotic drugs increased with the growth of HDI, were in the group with relatively high share of expenditures on drugs (located in the first half of 26 countries), and 4 countries (100%) of them were in the group with a relatively low HDI (located in the second half of the 26 countries). 3 countries (100%) out of 3 countries (11.5% of 26 countries) in which there was no relationship between expenditures on narcotic drugs and HDI, were in the group with relatively low share of expenditures on narcotic drugs (located in the second half of 26 countries) and 2 countries (67%) of them were in the group with a relatively high HDI (located in the first half of 26 countries).
Audience Take Away Notes:
- The audience will get acquainted with the developed and tested tools for methodological, analytical and predictive support of regulatory policy in countries. Based on a comparative analysis, public authorities will develop effective measures to reduce the consumption of addictive goods, the risks of noncommunicable diseases and mortality.
- The research is caused by the need to overcome the population decline and improve education and life level of the population.
- The research reveals how human development in European countries is changing under the influence of expenditures on the consumption of addictive goods and vice versa.
