Title : Understanding the complex dynamics of cigarette smoking and its impact on substance use in the USA: Insights from longitudinal data analysis
Abstract:
This study investigates the complex nexus between addiction, economic factors, and public health outcomes, with a particular emphasis on the consumption patterns of cigarettes and the implications of marijuana legalization. Grounded in established economic frameworks proposed by Boyer (1978, 1983), Becker (1994), and Chaloupka (1991), we construct a comprehensive utility function to unravel the behavioral dynamics of addictive consumption. By leveraging longitudinal data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) spanning the years 2014 to 2021, augmented by supplementary datasets from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), state-level repositories, and annual volumes of the Tax Burden on Tobacco (Orzechowski and Walker, 2023), we develop a nuanced model to dissect addiction trajectories and their societal ramifications. Our model conceptualizes cigarette consumption as a stock variable, intricately intertwined with addiction levels, market prices, regulatory interventions, marijuana usage trends, and a myriad of other life cycle variables. Utilizing a quadratic utility function, we derive demand equations that optimize consumption choices in the presence of addiction dynamics, shedding light on the intricate interplay between substance use behaviors and economic incentives.
Key findings from our analysis illuminate the multifaceted impacts of marijuana legalization on cigarette consumption patterns. Through the estimation of demand equations and the meticulous examination of coefficient effects, we uncover significant relationships between cigarette consumption, marijuana use prevalence, pricing mechanisms, tobacco control program expenditures, and various socio-economic determinants. Our empirical insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers and public health officials seeking evidence-based strategies to mitigate substance abuse and its associated harms. Furthermore, we anticipate enriching our analytical framework by incorporating additional life cycle variables, such as unemployment rates and state-specific contextual factors, to provide a more comprehensive understanding of addiction dynamics and inform targeted intervention strategies. This iterative approach underscores our commitment to rigorously examining the complexities of addiction within the broader socio-economic landscape, with the ultimate aim of fostering healthier communities and promoting evidence-informed policy responses.
